Nate Silver told Megyn Kelly on Sirius XM that Democrats might be overestimating Kamala Harris. Harris is the likely 2024 Democratic nominee. Silver described the race between Harris and her Republican opponent as a “coin flip.”
He pointed out that polls were wrong in 2016 and 2020. In 2020, they were off by four or five points in states like Wisconsin. Biden won Wisconsin by just 20,682 votes, or 0.6%.
Kelly mentioned that many Republicans are worried about Trump’s chances. They felt more confident a few weeks ago. On July 13, Trump was grazed by a bullet at a rally. He stood up, raised his fist, and shouted “Fight!” He appeared at the Republican National Convention on July 15, just days after the assassination attempt.
Silver thinks Democrats might be too confident. Harris will have her convention soon, which might boost her polling. But he warned that being a frontrunner can bring its own pressures.
Currently, Harris is leading Trump by small margins in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, according to RealClearPolitics.
Kelly noted how quickly the media shifted focus from Biden to Harris. After Biden’s struggles, they suddenly stopped digging once Harris was in the spotlight.
Biden announced he wouldn’t run in 2024 and endorsed Harris on July 21. The Democratic National Convention will begin on August 19 in Chicago.