FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver is stirring the pot. He says Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the most likely Democratic presidential nominee. And he's not alone in that belief.
On his "Silver Bulletin" site, Silver and political podcaster Galen Druke made draft picks for the party’s 2028 hopefuls. Druke went first. "My first pick of the first-round draft is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez," he said.
Silver’s reaction was instant. "F--- you! That was going to be my f---ing first pick!" he shot back. "We both are on the AOC bus," he added, though he admitted her chances are still just "20%."
Druke made the case for AOC. He pointed to a recent Yale poll showing she has the highest net favorability among Democrats. "So that means that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party... But I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support," he said.
Her "Fight Oligarchy" tour with Sen. Bernie Sanders has been drawing crowds. Druke said her ability to grab media attention would help her in a packed primary. "Like, the media is kind of obsessed with her, and they’re going to follow her every move."
Silver agreed. "I agree with everything," he said. "She was going to be my first pick... because she has this kind of progressive lane — probably not to herself, because she is younger and media savvy."
He brought up her polling advantage over Sen. Chuck Schumer. "I mean, look, in polls, if she were to run — try to primary Chuck Schumer, she is now ahead in those polls," Silver noted. He added that New York Democrats are "actually a pretty moderate lot."
AOC made waves again in March. She called out Schumer for backing a funding bill that prevented a government shutdown. That moment further solidified her influence in the party.
Silver admitted some doubts. "She’s very young. I don’t know that she’s sure to run," he said. "And I also think you’re going to have a lot of concerns about 'electability.'"