Millions of Americans placed bets on the election in the weeks leading up to Election Day. One bettor, known as "Theo," made a massive wager on Donald Trump winning the White House.
Theo, a French individual, initially bet more than $30 million on Trump using the crypto-based platform Polymarket. Early estimates suggested a profit of $48 million if Trump won.
However, a recent update from blockchain data firm Chainalysis revealed Theo's profit could actually be around $84 million. "We identified a 10th address associated with ‘Theo,’ which increases the estimated total profit by $4.8M to $83.5M," Chainalysis shared.
Update: We identified a 10th address associated with "Theo" which increases the estimated total profit by $4.8M to $83.5M. An 11th address is suspected with another $2.1M profit, but unconfirmed. https://t.co/aTLPhikkrF
— Chainalysis (@chainalysis) November 7, 2024
There’s even speculation about an 11th address, potentially adding another $2.1 million in profit. Polymarket alone saw $3.7 billion in election bets, with even more money flowing through platforms like Robinhood and PredictIt.
Just before Election Day, Polymarket gave Trump a 58.1% chance of winning, while Kamala Harris was at 41.9%. On Kalshi, Trump had a 55% chance to Harris' 45%. RealClearPolitics betting data also favored Trump at 57.9% versus 40.7% for Harris.
Theo spoke exclusively to the Wall Street Journal via Zoom last week. He explained, "My intent is just making money… I have absolutely no political agenda."
While initially believed to have four Polymarket accounts, Chainalysis now suggests Theo could have as many as 11.
Polymarket, a new platform launched just four years ago, proved to be a major player in engaging American voters during the 2024 election cycle.