Given the way polls are currently showing Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump for the election on November 3, a win for the POTUS would prove a "polling screw-up way worse than 2016."
In 2016, nearly every poll showed Hillary Clinton ahead of President Trump, but he still pulled out ahead and won the election. Which is exactly why I do not trust the polls this election.
Politico just released an article declaring that the president still has a shot to winning a second term, but that it will take a "polling debacle" for that to happen, and would "make 2016 look like a banner year."
In most of the core swing states, Joe Biden has maintained a stable — though not overwhelming — lead over Trump in polls over the past few months, continuing into the final week of the election. Some of the state polling averages have tightened slightly since the last debate, though Biden remains consistently ahead. In three live-interview polls of Florida all released on Thursday, Biden led Trump by between 3 and 5 points.
In some of the potentially decisive states, like Pennsylvania, the polls would have to be wrong to a significant degree — greater than the errors in 2016 — for Trump to win. The latest polling averages show Biden with a 5-point lead.
The Marist College Institute of Public Opinion released a poll on Thursday that shows Biden ahead by 4 points in Florida. Director Lee Muringoff, said, “The thought that maybe things would tighten in the last week doesn’t appear to be happening." He added, “I think, if anything, things are holding for Biden, or maybe even providing him an opportunity to go into some states” that are outside of key battlefield areas.
But there are some red flags about the polls, even if it’s not clear how they would affect the outcome. More voters than in previous elections are refusing to tell pollsters for whom they’re voting — or have voted, in the case of the tens of millions of Americans who have already cast their ballots.
And in the closing days, that phenomenon is only increasing. Charles Franklin, who runs the Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin, told National Review Online that his surveys show increasing numbers of respondents who refused to disclose their vote choice in his polls.
Similarly, Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told POLITICO Thursday that the number of voters refusing to name their candidate “has ticked up.”
Continue reading on Politico
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