New Poll Shows Trump With Big Lead Over Biden Among Key Group of Voters

A new poll shows the upcoming election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump is close. But Trump is ahead among a key group of voters.

ActiVote’s June 21 poll shows Trump leading Biden by 3.2%. In a three-way race with Robert Kennedy Jr., Trump’s lead drops to 1.6%.

The most concerning figure for Biden is Trump’s performance among independents. Biden is preferred by 92% of Democrats. Trump is chosen by 94% of Republicans. Among Independents, Trump leads 61% to 39%.

Trump is strongest among rural voters, older voters, and men. Biden outpolls him among urban voters, younger voters, and women. Trump wins white voters; Biden wins Black voters. Biden's share among African-Americans is smaller than in 2020. The Latino vote is evenly split.

When Kennedy is factored in, Trump’s percentage among Independents falls to 47%. But he still leads Biden at 28% and Kennedy at 25%. Kennedy polls best among those 18-29 and Black voters.

The ActiVote poll was conducted June 5-21 among 2,029 likely voters. The margin of error is 2.2%.